我们这里有 200亿元人民币 的大额支出用于收购万科的资产，但实际能够利用多少呢？我们之前有 300亿元人民币 来自人民银行，但那笔资金的利用率也仅为个位数。
根据新闻报道，我们已评估出万科目前有 500亿元人民币 的资金缺口。问题是，500亿元人民币 只是他们当前面临的一个快照。如果我们看看万科1月的合同销售量，它们下降了 42-43%。在最坏的情况下，如果这种下降趋势持续到2025年，我们预计销售额将比去年下降超过 400亿元人民币。这是一个动态情况，如果销售继续放缓，救助的价格可能会更高。
因此，新闻中提到的 500亿元人民币 可能在未来不足以应对局面。政府可能需要考虑加强救助，才能真正帮助万科扭转流动性问题，这也是为什么你今天在股价上看到，投资者并不信服他们认为 500亿元人民币 可能只是为万科争取时间，但如果我们想要万科流动性真正的反转，可能还需要做更多工作。
你预计今年合同销售将下降 25%，这明显高于共识预期。是什么支撑了你的预测？
我们预计销售下降将从1月的 42-43% 缩小到今年下半年约 20%。但归根结底，万科正面临一个缩小的项目管道。去年土地支出减少了 85-88%，因此可销售的项目数量在减少，他们也在谈论将房产卖给政府，这将进一步减少可售项目的数量。
“China is considering a major rescue plan to save Vanke, one of its largest property developers, with a potential $7 billion bailout. What does this mean for the property market in China and the future of other developers? Watch to find out the details of this groundbreaking intervention.”
“Vanke faces record losses of $6.2 billion and a management shake-up, but Chinese authorities are stepping in with a $7 billion rescue plan. Learn about the new funding mechanisms and what challenges lie ahead for the company and China’s property sector.”
“As China grapples with a property crisis, Vanke, one of the country’s largest state-backed developers, could be saved with a $7 billion bailout. But is this enough to turn around the company’s financial struggles? We break down the key points of this dramatic shift in China’s housing policy.”
“With sales down 42-43% and a shrinking project pipeline, Vanke is in financial trouble. But China’s government is stepping in with a $7 billion plan to help. Is this a turning point for the property sector, or will Vanke’s troubles continue to spill over?”
“In this video, we explore the potential $7 billion rescue for Vanke, one of China’s biggest property developers. With property sales slumping and a mounting funding gap, will this bailout be enough to save Vanke or is the property market headed for even more turmoil?”
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