USD Breakdown into Q3: GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, EUR/USD. In this video, James Stanley discusses:
The U.S. Dollar took a beatdown in the final full week of Q2 and the big driver for this week was increased expectations for rate cuts in the second-half of the year. While the Fed sounded less dovish at their rate decision in the prior week, Michelle Bowman opened the week with a bang as she said she was ready to start cutting rates in July.
While odds for 75 bps of cuts for 2025 ended last week around 30%, they’ve shot up to 58.5%, as of this recording. And along the way the USD has been driven down to fresh three-year lows and below a major long-term trendline.
For next week, we have the open of Q3 and as shown in the video, there’s been some notable turns around quarterly closes and opens. And on the data front, we have NFP on Thursday given the 4th of July holiday on Friday.
For USD-weakness, both GBP/USD and USD/CAD remain of interest, similar to the setups looked at in the Tuesday webinar.
For USD-strength, EUR/USD is testing a big level of Fibonacci resistance although price action remains strong to the upside, so there’s not really evidence of reversal at this point.
If we are going to see the USD tank in Q3, it’s probably going to need some help from USD/JPY and FOMC rate cut expectations could certainly have impact there.
To view the Tuesday webinar:
To watch next Tuesday’s webinar:
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