Japanese yen technical analysis into FOMC: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY. In this video, James Stanley discusses:
The US Dollar is in the spotlight this week as we near a rate meeting at the Fed, and this is a quarterly meeting so we’ll get updated guidance and projections highlighting what the bank is expecting for the second-half of the year.
USD/JPY is of particular interest after a hard breakdown scenario into April found support at 140.00 and, more recently, at 142.50. Still, buyers haven’t been able to break-above the 145.00 level and the Fed’s stance will probably have a big role to play here, as a dovish FOMC opening the door for rate cuts in the second-half of 2025 could give Dollar bears a reason to push, and in USD/JPY that exposes both 140.00 and 142.50. A less-dovish FOMC, however, could squeeze shorts, exposing a break of 145.00 which could then quickly run towards levels like 145.92 or perhaps even the 148.13 level that was in-play in May.
EUR/JPY has broken out aggressively. I looked at this in last week’s JPY video as an inverse head and shoulders pattern had built, and buyers have taken advantage. I think we would need to see reversal in USD to bring on reversal in EUR/JPY and there would need to be a few pieces of that puzzle to shift for that to come into play.
GBP/JPY still retains breakout potential as price has held higher-lows but also remains inside of key resistance. But, that door is still open and if we see USD/JPY strength I think GBP/JPY could potentially still outpace EUR/JPY.
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